Fireworks are done. Time for Back to School

You barely had time to finish your hot dog and watch the last firework fizzle out before the retail world moved on. Welcome to the most gloriously chaotic stretch of the summer: back-to-school season. And yes, it’s already well underway — whether you’re ready or not.

The Second-Biggest Shopping Season in America (No Pressure)

Back-to-school is no small thing. It ranks as the second-largest retail season in the country, trailing only the winter holidays. So while you were busy planning your 4th of July cookout playlist, retailers were already deep into back-to-school mode — and so were a lot of parents.

According to the National Retail Federation, two-thirds of back-to-school shoppers — 67% — had already begun purchasing items for the upcoming school year as of early July. That’s not a typo. July. As in, the same month as the holiday you just celebrated.

That figure is up from 55% compared to 2024 and is the highest rate for early back-to-school shopping since the NRF started tracking that data in 2018. So if you haven’t started yet, congrats — you’re officially in the minority.

What Families Are Actually Spending

Let’s talk numbers, because they’re genuinely wild.

Families with K-12 students planned to spend an average of $858.07 on clothing, shoes, supplies and electronics in 2025, down slightly from $874.68 the prior year. The NRF projected overall back-to-school spending near $39.4 billion — slightly up from $38.8 billion in 2024 — driven by higher electronics and apparel purchases despite tighter budgets.

The NRF predicted that while overall spending for both K-12 and college is expected to increase, average per-family spending will decline — with families with K-12 students spending $39.4 billion this year, up from $38.8 billion in 2024.

Deloitte painted a slightly more conservative picture, reporting around $570 per child with total category spending around $30.9 billion. Clothing and accessories were the only category seeing growth at +6%, while tech (–8%), school supplies (–3%) and home/health items (–12%) are declining.

For college students and their families, the average jumps to $1,325.85. Spending also varies wildly by state — New York parents top the list at $1,348 per child, while Louisiana parents come in at $327. So, geography really does matter here.

Here’s how the NRF breaks it down by category:

• Electronics: $295.81 average
• Clothing & accessories: $249.36
• Shoes: $169.13
• School supplies: $143.77

And in case you were wondering who’s spending the most on tech, technology leads the way in spending priorities, with 1 in 4 parents planning to spend more than $500 on technology alone — because it’s becoming a necessity for many families.

The July Sales Wars: Prime Day, Walmart and Target Throw Down

If you needed any more proof that July is the new back-to-school battleground, look no further than what happened in mid-July.

Amazon Prime Day sales could have sparked part of the pull forward in back-to-school shopping. To compete, U.S. retailers offered their own discounts — especially online. Walmart Deals, Target Circle Week and other retailers’ promotions overlapped with Prime Day, mimicking holiday-season sales in the summer.

This year, Amazon doubled the length of Prime Day from two days to four — the longest sale in the event’s history. And it paid off. During the four-day Prime Day event, U.S. consumers spent more than $24 billion online according to Adobe Analytics. In that time period, from July 8 to July 11, sales of school supplies increased 175% compared to average daily sales in June 2025 — including products such as backpacks, lunchboxes, binders, calculators and kids’ apparel.

Target wasn’t sitting on the sidelines either. Target Circle Week returned July 6–12 with early access for paid Circle 360 members. The sale featured additional savings on school supplies and electronics, and Target also announced it was “maintaining its 2024 prices on key back-to-school items,” including 20 must-have supplies and a $5 backpack.

Target also said it is maintaining 2024 pricing on select school products in addition to offering teachers and students a one-time 20% storewide discount, and giving them the option to sign up for a one-year Target Circle 360 membership at 50% off.

Meanwhile, Walmart said deals were “across electronics, home, fashion, toys, beauty and back-to-school essentials — including big names like Samsung, Vizio, Dyson, Sharpie and more.”

Still Haven’t Finished? You’re Not Alone.

Here’s the thing about all those early shoppers — most of them aren’t actually done yet, and that’s kind of the whole point.

Although NRF data suggests most consumers have gotten a head start on back-to-school shopping, the majority of them — 84% — still have to make at least half of their purchases. The top reasons people haven’t wrapped it up? They’re waiting for deals (47%), don’t yet know their exact needs (39%), or are trying to spread out the spending (24%). Perfectly reasonable, honestly.

Parents plan to shop across five retail formats, on average, for their back-to-school needs, with mass merchants and online retailers being the top destinations. And most consumers preferred online shopping for school supplies — 55% cited it — followed by department stores (48%), discount stores (47%) and clothing stores (41%).

Budget-Conscious but Not Giving Up

Make no mistake — families feel the financial pressure. But they’re adapting, not retreating.

“As we see the prices of everything, from rent to gasoline to food, all going up, it becomes more important to feel like you’re being smart with your money,” said Julie Craig, VP of Shopper Insights at Kantar. Parents are still saying they want to get their kids the trendy must-haves for school, “but they’re using some different tools,” such as shopping at discount and dollar stores and looking for sales.

One interesting trend this season is the rise of artificial intelligence in shopping for school supplies. PwC’s back-to-school survey noted that 1 out of every 5 shoppers planned to use AI tools to source the best online deals. Walmart, for example, has been testing out an AI personal shopping assistant for online use to help its customers discover deals and products more easily.

Retailers also froze prices as a means of protecting consumers and encouraging them to spend. Both Dollar General and Target announced they would be locking prices at 2024 levels for their “core” back-to-school items.

And for families who need even more flexibility, the Buy Now, Pay Later market is projected to reach $122.26 billion this year, making it a key part of the back-to-school toolkit.

What’s Trending in the Carts

So what’s actually flying off the shelves? The latest trends show families looking for items that help kids feel confident, stay organized and express their personalities. Everything aesthetic reigns supreme this year — backpacks with favorite characters, matching pastel sets and Minecraft-themed merch are hot. Tech gear like affordable smartwatches and wireless headphones are big, especially for middle and high schoolers, while younger kids are driving demand for character lunchboxes and tablets.

Oh, and it’s not just parents feeling the back-to-school financial squeeze. In 2025, the average educator is spending $895 out of pocket to equip their classrooms, with more than half of all supplies paid for by teachers themselves. Worth keeping in mind the next time you’re shopping for your kid’s classroom wish list.

The Bottom Line: Don’t Wait Too Long

The 4th of July is your unofficial starting gun for back-to-school season. The deals are live, the shelves are stocked and the competition among retailers is fierce — which means right now is genuinely a good time to buy.

PwC’s 2025 Back-to-School Survey found that nearly 3 in 4 back-to-school shoppers expect to spend the same or more on back-to-school shopping this fall, and more than 1 in 3 parents anticipate spending more than they did in 2024. The demand is there. The deals are there. The only thing missing might be your shopping list.

Most families aim to wrap things up by mid-August — so there’s still time. But with tariff concerns, tight budgets and an ever-growing list of must-haves, the smartest move is to get started now. Your future self — standing in a picked-over notebook aisle in late August — will thank you.