Upcoming Holiday Spending Predicted to be Less “Wish List” and More “Please Let Me Survive January”

Holiday shopping this year is looking a little less magical and a lot more practical.

Sure, people are still buying gifts. Grandma might still get a sweater. The kids may still get electronics. Someone, somewhere, is probably still panic-buying a scented candle at 9:43 p.m. on Dec. 23 and calling it “thoughtful.”

But this holiday season, a growing chunk of spending is shifting toward necessities — the thrilling stuff like shampoo, baby wipes, socks, pet food and cleaning supplies. You know, the items that really scream, “Happy holidays, we live in an economy.”

According to Retail Dive, online holiday spending is projected to hit $275.1 billion this year. That is a huge number, but what shoppers are putting in their carts says a lot about where people are financially. Instead of only using seasonal sales to buy gifts, many consumers are using Cyber Week and holiday discounts to stock up on basics they already need.

Because apparently “treat yourself” now means buying deodorant in bulk.

Essentials are having a moment as the Shopping season approaches

During Cyber Week, personal hygiene sales are forecast to jump 150%, while clothing basics are expected to rise by 210%. That means shoppers are watching for deals on things like underwear, socks, T-shirts, toothpaste, soap and other everyday items that normally do not make it into a holiday commercial unless the ad agency has officially given up.

Baby products are projected to increase by 113%, pet products by 93%, and household cleaning products by 49%.

That paints a pretty clear picture: People are stretching their holiday budgets to cover both gifts and survival supplies. The deals are not just a chance to splurge. They are a chance to lower the cost of things households have to buy anyway.

And honestly, if laundry detergent is 30% off, that may beat another novelty mug that says “But First, Coffee.”

Gifts are still happening, just with a side of financial anxiety

This does not mean traditional holiday categories are disappearing. Electronics are still expected to lead overall holiday spending at $63.3 billion, followed by apparel at $51.3 billion.

So yes, people are still buying laptops, tablets, headphones, gaming systems and clothes. But even those categories can blur the line between gift and necessity. A new phone may be a gift, but it also might be replacing the one that has been limping along since 2019. A winter coat may be wrapped under the tree, but it is also, technically, required when the weather decides to become hateful.

The bigger story is that consumers are being more strategic. Holiday shopping is no longer just about finding the perfect gift. It is about timing purchases around the best discounts, bundling needs with wants, and making the budget do Olympic-level gymnastics.

Inflation changed the holiday cart

For many households, higher prices over the past few years have changed how they approach shopping. Groceries, rent, utilities, insurance, child care and other recurring costs have eaten into discretionary spending. So when major retailers roll out holiday promotions, shoppers are not just thinking about presents.

They are thinking: What can I buy now that will save me money later?

That is why essentials are showing up in holiday spending forecasts in such a big way. If families can save on diapers, dog food, shampoo or cleaning products, they are going to do it. It may not be festive, but neither is paying full price for trash bags in January.

Retailers know this, too. Holiday deals are increasingly built around practical goods, not just big-ticket gifts. Stores want shoppers to fill their carts, and shoppers are saying, “Great, I need paper towels, a hoodie and maybe one actual present if everyone behaves.”

The new holiday luxury: being prepared

This year’s holiday shopping season says a lot about consumer confidence — or the lack of it. People are still spending, but they are spending carefully. They are looking for value, stacking deals, comparing prices and trying to make every dollar count.

The “holiday haul” may look different now. It might include a video game console, sure. But it may also include toothpaste, pet treats, baby formula, leggings, dish soap and enough toilet paper to make a warehouse club proud.

Is that glamorous? Not really.

Is it practical? Absolutely.

And in this economy, practical is basically the new luxury.